We've Only Just Begun

Steve Farhood on what we learned in GS1 and where we're headed in GS2

To the fighters who are competing in the Super Six World Boxing Classic and the fans who are watching, I recommend the same thing: Take a deep breath because we've only just begun.

The first Group Stage of the modified round-robin tournament is complete, and Group Stage 2 will commence in the New Year. So what have we learned from the first three bouts, and what can we anticipate as the modified round-robin tournament continues?

* There are 15 potential matchups - and not a bad one in the bunch: More than any other factor, competitive balance figured to make the Super Six tournament a success, and Group Stage 1 confirmed just that. For 11+ rounds, and until the sudden and spectacular ending, Arthur Abraham-Jermain Taylor was a reasonably close fight. Carl Froch-Andre Dirrell was decided by a split decision that could've gone either way. And while Andre Ward-Mikkel Kessler was one-sided, it was dominated by the underdog.

* Form held - but not for long: The European contingent was favored, and after Germany-based Abraham and England's Froch both won on October 17, Kessler figured to complete a first-round sweep.

At the start, oddsmaker Danny Sheridan made Abraham and Kessler co-tournament favorites, but given the quality of the latter's resume, Kessler was widely perceived as the strongest entrant in the field. Conversely, Ward had beaten Edison Miranda and nobody else who had really mattered.

No worry.

Five years ago, Ward was the last American standing at the Olympic Games in Athens and won the USA's only gold medal by rallying over the last two rounds against Magomed Aripgadjiev of Belarus.

Against Kessler, Ward carried an American flag into the ring and again embraced the pressure by frustrating his opponent, breaking him down, and winning a unanimous technical decision.

Just like that, Ward advanced from tournament outsider to co-favorite.

In the 1967-'68 WBA heavyweight tournament, the underdog won all seven bouts. Be sure Ward-Kessler won't be the last upset of the Super Six.

* Home field was indeed an advantage: Statistics confirm that winning on the road - especially in world title fights - is an extremely difficult task to accomplish. Group Stage 1 provided further evidence of that.

The decision in Froch-Dirrell was certainly arguable, but the fact is that the hometown fighter emerged victorious.

In Oakland, Kessler felt that referee Jack Reiss was lenient regarding hometown fighter Ward's holding, and inaccurate in ruling mid- and late-round head butts accidental.

"I'm not used to that," Kessler told Jim Gray during the SHOWTIME post-fight interview.

That's another way of saying that he believes the officiating might have been different had the bout taken place in, say, Copenhagen.

I'm sure the butts weren't intentional, and I agree with my colleague Al Bernstein, who said he didn't believe them to be the deciding factors in the bout. (Ward's speed and defense were far more significant.) Regardless, Kessler suffered nasty cuts over both eyes, and by the finish, he was not only beaten, but also badly battered.

* Every Super Six point could prove critical: Over the course of the three group stages, the fighters have a singular goal: reaching the semifinals. By securing an extra point for his last-round stoppage of Taylor, Abraham (three points) stands in first place. As a result, one win in his next two fights will undoubtedly land him in the final four.

Moreover, there's a possibility that a fighter who loses his first two bouts will still make the semifinals by scoring a stoppage in Group Stage 3.

A fight-by-fight look at Group Stage 2:

* Andre Ward vs. Jermain Taylor: Having beaten Kessler, Ward now has the easiest remaining draw; he faces Taylor and then, in Group Stage 3, Olympic teammate Dirrell.

Avoiding Froch and especially Abraham until the semifinals or finals would seem a formula for tournament survival, sort of like skipping the hotels on Park Place and Boardwalk by rolling an 11 and advancing directly to Go.

Taylor suffered a brutal KO at the hands of Abraham. His bout with Ward figures to feature far more boxing than slugging, and at his best, Taylor has the speed and skills to outpoint any super middleweight in the world.

The trouble is, Taylor is no longer at his best. All he can try to do is prove he hasn't fallen too far.

Advantage: Ward

* Carl Froch vs. Mikkel Kessler: For my taste, this is the most intriguing matchup in Group Stage 2.

There are plenty of questions to consider: How badly damaged was Kessler by the Ward fight? Will he rebound physically and/or psychologically? Has he gotten old overnight? Or was Ward simply that good?

It's almost impossible to believe, but should Froch win, Kessler could be shut out of the semifinals.

Then again, Froch barely got by Dirrell, and that was in the WBC titlist's hometown of Nottingham. Maybe Kessler's return to Denmark will turn out to be a deciding factor in the tournament's first all-European matchup.

I realize I'm employing 20-20 hindsight when I suggest that Froch is a better style matchup for Kessler. Ward was too fast and mobile for the Dane. Froch hits harder than Ward, but Kessler's chin has never been in question. In fact, he's never been down.

Because of what happened in Oakland, there'll be a heightened sense of urgency when Froch and Kessler square off. I'm picking Kessler to win.

Advantage: Even

* Arthur Abraham vs. Andre Dirrell: At this point, I don't think anyone wants to fight Abraham. His peekaboo style doesn't seem that difficult to solve, but he is 31-0, so looks are indeed deceiving.

The most remarkable thing about King Arthur is that he gives away early rounds, yet in his distance fights, almost always wins comfortably. The keys to beating him: Force him to fight inside, and when he suddenly opens fire, stand your ground and counterpunch.

No one's been able to do it yet.

In narrowly losing to Froch, Dirrell showed flashes of his potential. Had he fought in the early and middle rounds with the sense of purpose he displayed in the 11th and 12th, he would've won by decision. (Scoring off television, I had him a point in front.)

If and when Dirrell manages to meld his extraordinary physical gifts with confidence and ring maturity, he'll grow into a special fighter. But if he wants to reach the semifinals, he's going to have to start now.

Tall and mobile, Dirrell doesn't excel at close range, so look for him to stick and move against Abraham. He'll be ahead at the halfway mark, but lots of Abraham's victims found themselves in a similar position. How Dirrell responds when Abraham accelerates will determine the outcome.

Advantage: Abraham

Let the games begin...